U.S. Bancorp (USB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

U.S. Bancorp is attractive because it combines a large, diversified franchise across retail, commercial, payments, wealth, and capital markets with strong underlying execution in 3Q26, including record revenue of $7.97 billion, EPS of $1.34, and ROTCE of 18.6%. Its outlook is supported by 240bp of positive operating leverage, improving efficiency to 55.9%, expanding NIM to 2.84%, and resilient credit trends with NCOs of 0.51% and NPAs of $1.32 billion, while deposit remixing and the Amazon portfolio help reinforce higher-quality earnings. With CET1 at 10.8%, capital building from 3Q, and buybacks expected to resume in the next quarter or two, the bank appears well positioned to sustain premium profitability and stronger shareholder returns.

U.S. Bancorp is viewed negatively because a recessionary backdrop would दब pressure on ’25 and ’26 EPS through weaker loan growth, higher credit losses, and lower valuation support, while persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and Middle East hostilities raise macro risk. Credit trends are also deteriorating, with rising inflows of new nonaccrual loans in 3Q26 signaling potential increases in net charge-offs, OREO expenses, and workout costs, even as the bank’s observable delinquency and charge-off metrics remain reasonable. Performance is already showing strain: noninterest income fell to $526.0 million from $537.0 million quarter over quarter and $564.0 million year over year, PS net income dropped to $175.0 million, and Treasury and Corporate Support widened its net loss to $204.0 million.