Clear Secure (YOU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Clear Secure is benefiting from strong demand across its biometric identity network, with 1Q bookings up 40.8% to $291.7M, revenue reaching $253.0M, and adjusted EBITDA of $80.6M at a 31.9% margin, all above expectations. Membership growth remains robust, as Active Clear+ members rose 13.0% Y/Y to 8.2M and total Clear Member Enrollments increased 31.3% Y/Y to 41.0M, while Clear1 bookings continue to grow approximately fivefold Y/Y. The outlook is further supported by rising 2Q’26 guidance and improved cash generation, with bookings and revenue expected to grow 26.7% and 22.8% Y/Y at the midpoint and ’26 FCF guided to at least $465M, while eGates expand to 43 airports and remain on track for nationwide rollout by 2026.

Clear Secure is facing a weakening core demand backdrop, as August TSA checkpoint volume fell 4.4% Y/Y and 3QTD volumes are down 2.8% Y/Y, while airport wait times have also eased, reducing the urgency that supports Clear+ conversion. That softer traffic, combined with the expansion of TSA Touchless ID to 65 airports and a much lower-cost substitute versus Clear+ at $219 per year, raises the risk of slower member adds, higher churn, and limited ARPU expansion. Although management still has support from Amex renewal benefits and eGates, the business remains heavily dependent on partner-driven sign-ups, making the current growth runway and future bookings durability look increasingly constrained.