Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness Inc. reported North American system-wide sales of $1.4 billion in 2023, with projections reaching $1.71 billion in 2024, indicating a robust 22% year-over-year growth. The company has experienced a 15% year-over-year increase in total membership and a 9% rise in average membership per store, reflecting strong consumer demand and retention in its diverse portfolio of boutique fitness brands. Under the leadership of Tim Weiderhoft, who has a proven track record of substantial revenue growth, Xponential Fitness is poised for continued expansion, particularly in international markets, as it aims to double its international studio count to match that of domestic operations.

Xponential Fitness Inc. has reported an adjusted EBITDA expectation of $120M-$125M, which is significantly below analysts' estimates, primarily due to unexpectedly high selling, general, and administrative expenses. Additionally, the performance of its StretchLab brand has shown concerning trends, with average unit volumes declining from a run rate of $625K at the end of 2022 to an expected $550K by the end of 2024, alongside negative comparable performance for 2024. Furthermore, while system sales guidance of $1.935B to $1.955B is slightly above prior estimates, anticipated revenue and EBITDA figures are underwhelming, reflecting challenges in equipment installations and franchise growth, as well as soft merchandise sales.