Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness Inc. demonstrated robust financial growth, with North American system-wide sales projected to rise from $1,400 million in 2023 to $1,710 million in 2024, marking a 22% year-over-year increase. The company's total membership surged by 15% year-over-year, reflecting an enhanced average membership per store that increased 9% in the fourth quarter, alongside strong member visitation. With a proven leadership team poised to implement strategic initiatives, Xponential can anticipate continued expansion and enhanced profitability, supported by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in its top line and a substantial growth strategy for both domestic and international markets.

Xponential Fitness Inc. has faced significant challenges, with its adjusted EBITDA forecast falling short of expectations at $120M-$125M due to higher-than-anticipated selling, general, and administrative expenses. Additionally, the decline in average unit volumes for StretchLab and a slowing growth rate in same-store sales raise concerns about the overall viability of its franchise model, particularly as closures remain elevated. The company's revenue guidance of $315-$325M also reflects cautious market sentiment, as it lags behind previous projections, highlighting potential difficulties in executing its growth strategy amid softening demand for equipment and merchandise sales.