Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Xponential Fitness Inc. demonstrates robust growth potential as evidenced by a 15% year-over-year increase in total membership and a 9% rise in average membership per store in the fourth quarter. The company also reported impressive performance metrics, with Club Pilates achieving annual average unit volumes (AUVs) surpassing $1 million and contributing 56% of total system-wide sales, underscoring the strength of its primary brand. With management actively pursuing innovative strategies to stabilize sales and enhance revenue, coupled with optimistic guidance for fiscal year 2025, the company's outlook appears promising as it prepares for growth in key international markets.

Xponential Fitness's adjusted EBITDA for the year fell short of expectations, estimated between $120 million and $125 million, primarily due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses than anticipated. Key metrics reveal a concerning decline in average unit volumes for StretchLab, which decreased annually from $625,000 at the end of 2022 to a projected $550,000 by the end of 2024, alongside negative same-store performance. Furthermore, the company's guidance for revenue and EBITDA was lowered, with anticipated system sales of $1.935 billion to $1.955 billion against previous projections, exacerbated by reduced expectations in equipment installations and franchise fees, while elevated closure rates contributed to a negative overall outlook.