Exagen Inc (XGN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Exagen Inc. has demonstrated positive momentum in its financial performance, reflected by a 19% year-over-year revenue increase over the first nine months of the year, bolstered by a balanced growth of 9% in average selling prices (ASPs) and 8% in test volumes. The company's ASPs reached $441 per test, marking a notable 9.2% year-over-year growth, while volume growth of 16% year-over-year and significant operational progress indicate strong market demand and successful business strategies. Furthermore, Exagen's strategic expansion of sales territories, from an average revenue of approximately $285k to $430k per territory in the past two years, alongside a solid cash position of $35.7 million, supports its potential for sustained future growth.

Exagen Inc's recent financial performance demonstrates several areas of concern that may contribute to a negative outlook on its stock. Despite reporting a revenue of $17.2 million for the second quarter of 2025, the company experienced a bottom-line miss with a GAAP EPS of -$0.21, falling short of consensus estimates, and an EBITDA loss of $1.9 million indicates ongoing financial challenges. Furthermore, the significant reduction in headcount by approximately 42 full-time equivalents across sales, R&D, and other functions may hinder operational effectiveness and growth potential, underscoring deeper issues within the company.