Weyerhaeuser (WY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Weyerhaeuser's positive outlook is supported by management's increased guidance for segment Adjusted EBITDA, projecting approximately $390 million in FY25, indicating a strong expectation for enhanced financial performance. The company’s substantial timberland holdings in desirable markets are poised to generate steady cash flows, fueled by long-term growth in demand for wood and related products, including strong overseas market interest. Additionally, the acquisition of Plum Creek is predicted to contribute significantly to Weyerhaeuser's earnings, with an anticipated annual EBITDA of $19 million from the acquired acreage, reflecting a robust potential for future profitability.

Weyerhaeuser's financial outlook has deteriorated significantly, with the 2Q Wood Products EBITDA forecast declining from $180 million to $102 million, contributing to an overall consolidated forecast reduction from $399 million to $319 million. The anticipated EBITDA loss in the Wood Products segment for 3Q25 marks a troubling first unprofitable quarter since 2011, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its earnings amidst weaker lumber and oriented strand board (OSB) pricing environments. Additionally, significant downward revisions in earnings forecasts reflect ongoing challenges in the company's real estate segment and a faltering recovery in lumber realizations, highlighting a broader trend of declining sales realizations in both the West and South regions.