Weyerhaeuser (WY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Weyerhaeuser's positive outlook is supported by the anticipated improved pricing in the lumber market, which has historically correlated with the company's shares trading closer to net asset value (NAV) estimates. The acquisition of 117,000 acres of high-quality timberlands is expected to contribute significantly to the company's financials, including an anticipated annual EBITDA/FCF of $19 million, which is over three times the average EBITDA per acre in the South for 2024. Furthermore, the company has demonstrated strong performance in its real estate business, achieving timberland sales at a 30% premium to current NAV estimates, while a significant discount to NAV persists, enhancing the risk/reward scenario for Weyerhaeuser's shares.

Weyerhaeuser's second-quarter EBITDA forecast for its Wood Products segment has been significantly reduced from $180 million to $102 million, leading to an overall consolidated forecast decline from $399 million to $319 million. The company's net asset value (NAV) has decreased alongside an increased net debt balance, while expectations for the Wood Products segment have been lowered, suggesting it will face an EBITDA loss in the third quarter of 2025—the first such instance since 2011. Additionally, there is a notable decline in composite lumber prices, which have dropped below previously established averages, contributing to a downward revision of full-year EBITDA estimates from $1.47 billion to $1.17 billion, primarily due to weaker market conditions for wood products.