Waste Management (WM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waste Management's stock outlook is bolstered by a notable 5.2% year-over-year increase in landfill volumes, highlighting strength across multiple waste segments. The company also achieved a 100 basis points expansion in Collection & Disposal AEBITDA margins, alongside a robust 14% growth in combined Recycling and RNG EBITDA, showcasing the effectiveness of its sustainability investments despite external commodity price pressures. Furthermore, Waste Management plans to return approximately 90% of its projected $3.8 billion free cash flow to shareholders in FY26, representing a significant 162% year-over-year increase in capital returns.

Waste Management's negative financial outlook is primarily driven by lower-than-expected revenue figures and Adjusted EBITDA, attributed to slower-than-anticipated synergy capture and a lack of acquisitions. The company's revised revenue guidance reflects ongoing challenges, including weakened commodity prices and disappointing sales within its Healthcare Solutions segment, which have negatively impacted overall performance metrics. Additionally, the anticipated margins are under pressure due to lower growth prospects and potential regulatory changes affecting the profitability of renewable natural gas projects.