Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waste Connections demonstrates a positive outlook due to improved profitability indicators, highlighted by a year-over-year Adj. EBITDA margin increase of 12 basis points and continual enhancements in voluntary turnover. The company reported resilient solid waste core pricing growth of 6.6%, contributing to same-store margin expansion, despite facing a 20 basis point headwind. Furthermore, a 2.4% year-over-year organic revenue increase in Q2, primarily driven by pricing, along with expectations for a +60 basis point margin improvement in the latter half of 2025, supports the strong financial trajectory.

Waste Connections reported a leverage ratio of approximately 2.7x at the end of Q2, which, although slightly lower year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, still reflects the firm’s elevated debt levels amidst declining operational performance. The company faced negative adjustments to its 2025 guidance, with expectations of solid waste volumes decreasing by about 0.5% and significant headwinds from recycled commodity prices contributing an estimated $30 million to costs in the second half of the year. Additionally, the firm experienced a volume decline of 2.6%, resulting from macroeconomic uncertainties and the continued shedding of low-quality volumes, which poses ongoing risks to its growth trajectory.