WALD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Waldencast PLC is experiencing solid growth in its beauty and wellness segments, with second-quarter sales rising 5.6% year-over-year, which reflects a positive trend across both the Obagi and Milk Makeup brands. The company saw a significant acceleration in growth in the third quarter, reported at 10.1%, primarily driven by eCommerce and international sales, indicating strong market demand and successful distribution strategies. Furthermore, Milk Makeup is outpacing the overall prestige beauty market, with year-to-date consumption growth in the U.S. reaching 12%, signaling a robust position in a competitive industry.

Waldencast PLC has revised its fiscal year 2025 outlook downward, now anticipating flat revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin in the high single digits, reflecting a significant reduction from earlier projections. The company's consolidated adjusted gross margin has contracted by 310 basis points year-over-year to 71.9%, which is disappointing compared to the expected decline of only 100 basis points. Furthermore, the Milk Makeup segment has experienced a substantial year-over-year revenue decline of 20%, contributing to an overall sales decrease of 3.4%, despite offsetting growth from the Obagi segment.