Wayfair (W) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Wayfair is experiencing notable growth in both U.S. and international markets, with U.S. segment revenue accelerating to 9% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while international revenue growth increased to 5%, exceeding consensus expectations. The firm’s adjusted EBITDA margins also showed improvement, with a 50 basis points increase and contribution margins hitting 15.8%, indicating the potential for sustained profitability. Additionally, repeat customer orders have risen to 7.9 million, reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth, which underscores the company’s expanding customer base and growing scale advantages.

Wayfair's negative outlook is driven by a decline in its active customer count, which decreased by 2.3% year-over-year to 21.2 million, highlighting challenges in sustaining customer engagement amidst a competitive landscape. Additionally, the company's guidance for fourth-quarter AEBITDA of 5.5% to 6.5% suggests a potential slowdown compared to previous quarters, illustrating the difficulties in achieving targeted efficiency and savings. Furthermore, persistent issues such as pronounced category slowdowns, execution mishaps, and international revenue growth deceleration add to the financial pressures faced by Wayfair, emphasizing the company's struggles in expanding its market share and improving profitability.