Valvoline (VVV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Valvoline Inc demonstrated robust expansion by adding 56 net new stores in the quarter, contributing to a total of 170 openings for the year, which indicates a strong and growing franchise pipeline. The company reported a same-store sales (SSS) growth of 4.9%, with ticket increases attributed to premiumization and higher list prices, suggesting potential for sustained revenue growth. Furthermore, the projected EBITDA growth of 12-17% underscores the company's positive financial trajectory, reflecting both unit growth potential and market share gains as its brand footprint expands in the U.S.

Valvoline Inc's fiscal fourth-quarter results included revenue of $453.8 million, which represented a 4.2% year-over-year increase but fell slightly below consensus expectations of $454.4 million. The initially projected adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 was notably lower than both prior estimates and analyst predictions, set at $1.60-$1.70 compared to the expected $1.90, reflecting challenges associated with increased depreciation, interest, and tax expenses, as well as a deteriorating margin outlook linked to the acquired Breeze units. Furthermore, indications of worsening used oil pricing have negatively impacted the product margin, prompting a significant downward adjustment of sales growth expectations.