Vistra Energy (VST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vistra Corp. has demonstrated robust operational growth, as evidenced by a 9% year-over-year increase in retail volumes to 67 TWh, enhancing its already significant position in the U.S. energy market. The company has reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance between $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, with free cash flow guidance of $3 billion to $3.6 billion, indicating strong financial health and a solid foundation for future performance. Furthermore, the strategic increase in projected Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to a midpoint of $6.8 billion underscores Vistra's potential for continued growth, supported by improved hedging percentages and the recent acquisition strategies enhancing its asset portfolio.

Vistra Corp. faces a negative outlook due to projected declines in key financial ratios, with expectations that the EBITDA to net debt ratio will materially decrease beginning in 2026. The company's generation segment reported a 5% year-over-year decline in EBITDA, totaling $593 million, primarily due to unplanned outages, which raises concerns about operational reliability. Additionally, the retail segment's EBITDA of $756 million showed a decline attributed to fluctuations in supply costs, indicating potential challenges in sustaining profitability amidst changing market conditions.