Vistra Energy (VST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vistra Corp. has demonstrated a robust operational performance, evidenced by a 9% year-over-year increase in retail volumes, reaching 67 terawatt-hours. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance in the range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, with a free cash flow before growth projection of $3 billion to $3.6 billion, indicating a strong conversion rate of 55% to 59%. Additionally, Vistra increased its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity to $6.8 billion, while improvements in trading yield could represent significant upside potential for the company's stock.

Vistra Corp. has experienced stagnant leverage ratios, remaining at approximately 3.0x for several quarters, with expectations of a material decline starting in 2026, which raises concerns about future financial stability. The generation segment reported a year-over-year EBITDA decline of 5%, driven by operational issues such as unplanned outages, indicating vulnerabilities in production efficiency. Furthermore, despite some positive performance metrics in the retail segment, EBITDA decreased by $33 million due to rising supply costs, suggesting pressures on profitability that could affect the company’s overall financial health.