Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc is poised for positive growth due to its strong product portfolio, highlighted by an 18% increase in Fanapt sales and expectations for sequential revenue growth throughout 2025, primarily driven by Fanapt sales in bipolar disorder and continued interest in Ponvory. The company demonstrated solid financial performance with a reported $52.3 million in revenue, exceeding forecasts, and shows potential for sustainable profitability as product uptake and new launches, including milsaperidone and imsidolimab, are anticipated to accelerate revenue in 2026. Additionally, the possibility of significant contributions from the upcoming regulatory approval of Tradipitant could further enhance the long-term revenue outlook, supporting a positive trajectory for the company.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals faces significant risks that may negatively impact its stock performance, primarily characterized by slower-than-expected commercial traction for key products like Fanapt and Ponvory, along with accelerated generic erosion for Fanapt and HETLIOZ. Further challenges include negative pricing trends related to Medicare reimbursement, potential regulatory setbacks for late-stage candidates like tradipitant, and adverse clinical outcomes for pipeline products, which collectively threaten the company's revenue growth and operational stability. Additionally, concerns over future M&A developments, shareholder destabilization, and potential dilution create a complex risk environment that could hinder Vanda's financial performance in the medium to long term.