VITL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vital Farms Inc. demonstrates a strong financial outlook due to its robust sales growth forecast, with projected revenues increasing by 24% to $942 million in 2026, alongside elevated adjusted EBITDA expectations of $136 million. The company has room for significant volume expansion, currently holding only a 3% market share, which is expected to be driven by improvements in distribution depth, product velocities, and SKU count in major retailers. Furthermore, Vital Farms has consistently achieved double-digit revenue growth since going public, establishing itself as a leading premium egg brand through effective distribution strategies and growing consumer awareness.

Vital Farms Inc. has experienced a significant decline in its stock price despite consistently beating earnings expectations, with its current EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple trading at approximately 10x, which is roughly 25% below its historical averages. The company faces substantial gross margin headwinds due to increased promotional spending, tariffs, and rising commodity costs, leading to a downward revision of its 2025 sales guidance from at least $775 million to a range of $755 million to $765 million. Analysts emphasize that potential distribution losses with major customers could further adversely affect Vital Farms's financial performance and growth prospects, resulting in a decreased equity valuation.