VFS Stock Forecast & Price Target

VinFast Auto is supported by accelerating deliveries, with 48% of the assumed 303,000 units already delivered in the first half of 2026 and July Vietnam deliveries up about 90% year over year, which increases confidence in meeting or exceeding the 300,000-vehicle goal. Its outlook is also strengthened by scale-driven operating leverage: adjusted gross margin improved to negative 22%, e-scooter deliveries grew 219% year over year to 143,136 units, and management expects EBITDA breakeven in Vietnam in 2027, aided by the 1 million-EV GSM supply agreement through 2030. Longer term, the company’s expansion beyond Vietnam, the planned U.S. dealer buildout, and autonomous initiatives with Autobrains and Nvidia provide additional upside if execution and gross margin improvement continue.

VinFast Auto is facing a fundamentally challenged outlook because its FY1Q26 results showed significant operating weakness despite higher EV deliveries, with revenue of $920.7 million missing estimates and gross margin collapsing to (73.6%) due to free-charging deductions, revenue deferrals, and NRV adjustments. The company also posted a deeply negative operating income of ($910.7) million and Non-GAAP Adj. EBITDA of ($783.0) million, reflecting heavy R&D spending on Green, Lac Hong, and E/E 2.0 architecture while profitability remains distant. Although liquidity is $2.6 billion, the company’s dependence on Vingroup and other external funding, plus risks from Asian market penetration, large EV competition, tariffs, export controls, and interest rates, supports a bearish fundamental view.