Velo3D Inc (VELO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Velo3D is benefiting from accelerating adoption of its metal additive manufacturing platform in aerospace, defense, energy, and industrial markets, where customers need mission-critical parts with complex geometries that traditional manufacturing cannot efficiently produce. 2Q26 revenue rose 52.3% y/y to $20.7M, gross margin expanded to 21.5% from (11.7)%, bookings were $29M, backlog was $31M, and cash and cash equivalents totaled $91.1M as of June 30, 2026, supporting a stronger liquidity and demand profile. The company’s RPS shift toward recurring production relationships, plus raised 2026 revenue guidance of $65M-$75M and new capacity from Forge 1, improves visibility and creates a credible path to higher-margin, scalable growth.

Velo3D is facing a weak fundamental profile marked by persistent operating losses of $54.9 million in 2025 and $78.9 million in 2024, ongoing negative cash flow, and a going-concern warning that still remains in the latest 10-K filing in March 2026. Its heavy reliance on a limited customer base, including SpaceX at 23.0% of 2024 revenue, creates outsized concentration risk, while lower revenue assumptions are paired with worse EPS estimates of $(1.07) and $(0.88) for 2026 and 2027. The company’s repeated financings, reverse stock split, debt-for-equity exchange, and internal control weaknesses suggest ongoing dilution, liquidity stress, and execution risk that could limit margin recovery and keep growth below expectations.