Vericel (VCEL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vericel Corp is positioned for substantial revenue growth, particularly in its MACI product line, which is anticipated to see a volume increase in the low-to-mid teens and overall annual growth in the high teens to low 20s. The company's recent performance indicates a robust forecast for Q4, with projected revenues of $84.8 million, marking a significant 26% quarter-over-quarter increase. Additionally, the annual average selling prices (ASPs) for MACI are expected to rise between 300 to 500 basis points each year, further enhancing revenue sustainability aligned with the anticipated volume growth.

Vericel Corp's outlook appears negative due to revised expectations that project a decrease of approximately 200 basis points in MACI revenue for FY26 and FY27, highlighting challenges in revenue growth. Additionally, the company faces significant risks stemming from potential slower adoption rates of MACI Arthro, lagging sales in the burn care segment, and possible disruptions during sales force expansion. Finally, if top-line revenue expectations are not met, there is a concern that Vericel's shares may decline to historically low valuation levels.