UWMC Stock Forecast & Price Target

UWM Holdings Corp has demonstrated significant growth in its market share within the wholesale mortgage origination segment, highlighting its status as a market leader amid an expanding broker channel. The company has shown resilience by benefiting from an increase in refinance activity, with refi originations rising 26% quarter-over-quarter and an impressive 356% year-over-year, attributed to recent declines in interest rates. Furthermore, the growth of the servicing portfolio, which expanded to $242 billion from $212 billion in the previous quarter, underscores UWM's capacity to capitalize on increased purchase volumes and adapt to fluctuating market conditions effectively.

UWM Holdings Corp has experienced a decline of 9.9% in its stock price since the end of 2023, aligning closely with the peer group’s median drop but significantly lagging behind the gains of the S&P 500 and Russell 3000 during the same period. The company's financial performance has been adversely impacted by lower-than-expected loan production income of $407 million for F4Q24, coupled with a reduction in the 2025 revenue forecast by approximately 16%, primarily due to persistent high mortgage rates affecting origination volumes. Additionally, expectations for servicing income have decreased significantly, with a projected total of $770 million in 2025, reflecting an 11% drop in the servicing UPB, which underscores ongoing challenges in the mortgage market environment.