USFD Stock Forecast & Price Target

The analysis indicates that US Foods Holding Corp has demonstrated notable financial growth, with a year-over-year increase in EBITDA and a consistent EBITDA margin expansion driven by improved gross profit per case. The company appears well-positioned for continued market share gains in key customer segments, bolstered by strong new account generation, enhanced service levels, and a significant embrace of digital sales initiatives. Furthermore, USFD is expected to benefit from lasting operational efficiencies and cost-saving measures implemented during the pandemic, which should support margin expansion and overall profitability in the coming years.

US Foods Holding Corp has faced several headwinds, leading to a cautious outlook for its stock. Notably, the company's organic case growth has slowed to +1.4% in the fourth quarter, coming in below expectations and reflecting the overall decline in restaurant industry traffic, which dropped approximately 2.0%. Furthermore, the guidance for 2025 indicates a case growth forecast of +2-4%, which is subdued compared to the long-term algorithm of +3-5%, amidst concerns over macroeconomic pressures and rising competition from peers like Sysco Corporation.