USFD Stock Forecast & Price Target

US Foods Holding Corp has demonstrated a positive financial trajectory, with revenue growth of 3.6% year-over-year per case in the fourth quarter, up from 3.1% in the previous quarter. The company's EBITDA margins have expanded, evidencing operational improvements, as shown by a 30 basis points year-over-year increase in Q4, consistent with prior quarters and reflecting strong gross profit per case performance. Furthermore, US Foods is expected to maintain its growth momentum driven by new account generation, enhanced service levels, digital sales initiatives, and a strategic shift towards more profitable customer segments, thus positioning the company favorably in the competitive landscape.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for US Foods Holding Corp primarily due to slightly weaker than expected case growth in the context of a declining restaurant industry traffic, which was down approximately 2% in the fourth quarter. Moreover, the company’s guidance for 2025 reveals a projected case growth of only 2-4%, below its long-term algorithm of 3-5%, which reflects a constrained macroeconomic environment and uncertainty in industry recovery. Additional competitive threats from larger rivals like Sysco Corporation, alongside challenges in maintaining pricing power and the risk of independent restaurants losing market share, contribute to concerns over sustainable profitability and market position.