Upwork Inc (UPWK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Upwork is supported by Q2 execution that showed GSV of $966.4M in line with expectations, revenue of $191.7M beating consensus by 0.9%, and adjusted EBITDA of $64.1M exceeding consensus by 11.4% with a 33.4% margin, signaling strong operating leverage. The bullish case is reinforced by Business Plus GSV rising 174% y/y, AI Strategy & Consulting up 51% y/y, and management’s view that AI-related GSV is meaningfully understated, with roughly $330M annually based on current run-rate indications. Its longer-term upside also rests on Enterprise and Lifted momentum, including 25% y/y GSV growth expected in 2026, 29% y/y Employer of Record GSV growth, and product innovation like the MCP server that embeds Upwork into AI workflows.

Upwork is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as AI-driven automation continues to reduce demand for low-complexity work, with active clients down 4% y/y to 763,000 and GSV decelerating to -3.6%, while management expects these pressures to intensify through Q3 and Q4. A second, more structural headwind is Google’s May/June SEO changes, which have compressed free referral traffic and weakened new customer acquisition, forcing an additional $5M-$10M of marketing spend in 2H that may cushion revenue but pressure margins. Although Business Plus, AI-related services, and higher-margin revenue streams are growing, they remain too small to offset declining marketplace volume, prompting FY26 revenue guidance to be cut to $730M-$750M and leaving limited visibility for sustainable growth.