UPBD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Upbound Group Inc. demonstrates a positive financial outlook driven by an 11% year-over-year increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for 3Q25, indicating effective decision-making in balancing growth and risk-adjusted margins. The company is experiencing faster-than-expected top-line growth, particularly from acquiring new accounts at its Acima segment, which is crucial as it generates the majority of the firm’s revenue. Additionally, positive top-line growth has resumed in both the Rent-A-Center and Acima segments, suggesting that these areas are poised for continued acceleration and reinforcing confidence in the company’s overall financial health.

Upbound Group Inc. is experiencing a negative outlook primarily due to its fourth-quarter guidance which missed consensus expectations for EBITDA by 11% and EPS by 14%, prompting concerns over the stability and performance of its Acima segment. Analysts have revised their earnings per share estimates down by 13% for 2026 and 10% for 2027, as continued losses in the Acima segment raise alarms about the potential deterioration of subprime consumer credit impacting overall earnings and book value. Furthermore, the stock's trading multiples have become significantly compressed, reflected in the current trading at 4.1 times the lowered 2026 EPS and 3.0 times the 2027 EPS, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the company's growth and profitability prospects.