UPBD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Upbound Group Inc. has demonstrated a strong financial outlook, as evidenced by a year-over-year gross merchandise volume (GMV) increase of 11% in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting effective decision-making between growth and risk-adjusted margins. The company is experiencing accelerated top-line growth driven by the successful acquisition of new accounts within the Acima segment, which is crucial for capturing market share. Furthermore, the return to positive revenue growth in both the Rent-A-Center and Acima segments positions Upbound favorably compared to its peers, suggesting a solid trajectory for future financial performance.

Upbound Group Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to disappointing 4Q25 guidance, which fell short of consensus EBITDA and EPS by 11% and 14%, respectively. Significant concerns are raised about the Acima segment, where losses increased to 10% in 4Q25 and could potentially rise to 16.5%, heightening fears regarding subprime consumer credit deterioration that may adversely affect earnings and book value. Analysts have revised their 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts downward by 13% and 10%, respectively, and noted that shares are trading at multiples of 4.1x and 3.0x the lowered EPS projections for those years, indicating a declining financial outlook.