Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Texas Roadhouse is viewed favorably because it combines category-leading scale, industry-leading average unit volumes of $8.7M in FY25, and sustained traffic outperformance with a proven operating model that continues to gain share in casual dining. The company also has meaningful white-space across Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers, supported by a full development pipeline through 2028 and a strong FY27 AEBITDA estimate of $856M. Fundamental support is further strengthened by easing beef costs, with a blended beef basket down 5% in 3Q, and by the brand’s value-driven, consistent experience that resonates as consumers seek full-service dining.

Texas Roadhouse is facing a weaker fundamental setup as a false social-media hoax appears to have hurt traffic, contributed to a roughly 20% share pullback since late August, and led management to cut 3Q company store same-store sales expectations to 5.4% from 6.5% prior. Beyond the near-term demand hit, the business remains exposed to an inflationary cost environment, especially beef costs that make up almost half of the commodity basket, which could compress margins or force further menu price hikes that weigh on visit frequency. Competitive pressure, development delays, and the lack of delivery also limit operating flexibility, while 648 company-owned units still drive most of the $5.8 billion system sales base.