10X Genomics (TXG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

10x Genomics is viewed positively because the Los Reyes PEA outlines a compelling growth avenue with a strong after-tax NPV5% of US$1,491M, a 37.3% IRR, and a 1.9-year payback on US$515M of upfront capex, indicating attractive project economics. The long-life plan of 134 koz AuEq/yr over 14.4 years, including higher output in the first 11 years and LOM AISC of US$1,617/oz AuEq, supports durable cash generation and funding flexibility from current liquidity and Morelos cash flow. Despite Q2 production coming in below estimates, FY2026 guidance was reiterated and the implied valuation remains well below peers at 0.51x P/NAV5% versus 0.64x, reinforcing the fundamental upside case.

10x Genomics is facing a negative outlook because its business is exposed to intense market competition, technological obsolescence, regulation, dependence on key customers, and potential supply chain disruptions, all of which can pressure adoption and margins. The cited Q2/26 production results came in below estimates and consensus, with gold at 69.3 koz versus 78.8 koz expected, copper at 13.9 Mlbs versus 15.3 Mlbs, and silver at 520.2 koz versus 549.7 koz, signaling operational execution risk. Although 2026 guidance of 420–470 koz AuEq was reiterated, planned lower Media Luna grades and recoveries, with grades only stepping into H2/26, suggest limited near-term momentum and heightened downside risk.