Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Trade Desk has reiterated its guidance for 4Q25, forecasting revenue of at least $840 million, representing a growth of 13% year-over-year, which indicates a solid growth trajectory amidst a competitive digital advertising landscape. For 2026, estimated revenue growth is projected to start at a low double-digit pace in 1Q26 and accelerate to 18.5% for the year, highlighting the company’s strong fundamentals and potential for market share gains. Furthermore, data reflecting increasing zero-click searches and projections for gross spend suggest that The Trade Desk is well-positioned to capture share in the open web advertising market as it continues to expand its client base against traditional media advertisers.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Trade Desk's stock primarily due to expected declines in advertising revenue, stemming from a 3% year-over-year decrease directly linked to lower programmatic advertising revenue and diminished impression volumes. Additionally, the anticipated deceleration in revenue of approximately eight percentage points in 2026, compounded by a potential decline in take rates from 20% to 19%, could lead to significant EBITDA reductions of around $166 million, representing a 12% downside to 2026 consensus projections. As increased competition and the impact of AI-driven search results continue to pose challenges, revised estimates for 2027 have been lowered by approximately 3% in revenue and 9% in EBITDA, placing the projections below consensus for both metrics.