Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply Company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by consistent top-line momentum and an anticipated EBIT margin expansion as a normalizing comparison year in 2026 approaches. The company's strategic investments in direct sales initiatives, alongside an expanded final mile coverage projected to scale from 15% to 25% within the next 24 months, are expected to enhance market share gains and drive industry outperformance. Additionally, strong performance in the consumable, usable, and edible products category, coupled with the recent acquisition of Allivet, is projected to further uplift the company's comparable sales profile significantly in the near to intermediate term.

Tractor Supply faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock. Key factors include a decline in U.S. retail sales for building materials and garden equipment, down 5.4% year-over-year, as well as the risks associated with an unusually warm winter that diminishes seasonal demand for products related to livestock and agriculture. Additional concerns involve competitive pressures, potential supplier disruptions, increasing labor costs, and the company’s ability to effectively execute new store openings, which are critical for revenue growth.