Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply Company has demonstrated robust growth metrics, with total sales for fiscal 2025 expected to increase by 4% to 8%, supported by new store openings and effective remodeling strategies. Notably, the company has experienced an increase in transactions and customer engagement, contributing to a 0.5% rise in average transaction value while maintaining strong gross margins at 36.9%. Enhanced in-stock levels and a diversified product offering—particularly in livestock and companion animal categories—further solidify Tractor Supply's strong market share and favorable financial outlook in the retail farm and ranch segment.

Tractor Supply has maintained its earnings per share guidance for 2025, projecting only a slight increase of 2% to 7%, while margins are expected to slightly decline in fiscal 2025, signaling potential profitability challenges. Additionally, the company's reliance on imports from China poses risks, as approximately 20% of its products are sourced from there, with plans to reduce this level, highlighting vulnerabilities to tariff impacts and supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the anticipated effects of sustained interest rate increases may adversely impact home affordability and housing turnover rates, which could consequently diminish demand for Tractor Supply's products and lead to a deterioration in financial performance.