Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply has demonstrated solid financial health, with sales increasing by 3.3% to reach $3.90 billion, driven in part by strong performance in core categories such as livestock, companion animals, and seasonal products. The company is poised for gross margin expansion, expected to rise by 17 basis points to 36.6% due to easier comparisons in the second half of the fiscal year and efficiencies from a new distribution center. Additionally, inventory management remains robust despite an 8.6% year-over-year increase, highlighting the company's effective handling of supply amid inflationary pressures that are anticipated to contribute 1-2% to full-year comparable sales.

Tractor Supply's recent financial performance indicates a concerning trend, as the company reported a disappointing fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, with earnings per share of $0.43 falling short of expectations while guiding for lower fiscal 2026 results. The continued decline in operating margins, dropping 40 basis points to 9.45%, coupled with a significant slowdown in discretionary big-ticket categories and overall consumer spending pressures, highlights persistent challenges. Additionally, the absence of hurricane-related emergency sales and underwhelming seasonal demand further exacerbate the company's forecast, leading to a reduced EPS estimate for 2027 to $2.41, reflecting a stark, ongoing struggle for revenue growth amid a shifting retail landscape.