Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply has experienced significant growth in total sales per store, increasing from approximately $4.5 million in 2019 to around $6.5 million currently, highlighting effective operational strategies and strong market demand. The company has seen broad-based sales improvements, particularly in consumable, usable, and edible (CUE) products, as well as strong seasonal sales, leading to a positive comp gain of 1.5% in the third quarter. Additionally, despite facing challenges in previous quarters, Tractor Supply's big ticket sales have exceeded expectations, contributing to an overall favorable sales growth trajectory.

Tractor Supply has encountered potential revenue challenges, as retail sales for building materials, garden equipment, and supply stores have declined by 3.6% year-over-year in the first two months of 3Q25, which may negatively impact sales performance. The company is facing expected operating margin contraction of approximately 20 basis points to 9.7% for the fiscal year, amidst a backdrop of substantial interest rate increases that could depress home affordability and housing turnover. Additionally, if consumer spending shifts back towards services rather than goods, it could further aggravate the sales outlook for Tractor Supply's retail segments, particularly in rural communities where the company predominantly operates.