TRVI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trevi Therapeutics has revised its sales projections upward for Haduvio, driven by strong data demonstrating low-dose rapid efficacy, which is expected to enhance net pricing and market penetration in chronic cough indications. The successful results from the RIVER RCC trial, particularly the significant improvement threshold responder rates, exemplify the therapy's potential, supported by compelling patient-reported outcomes and no new safety concerns. Additionally, projected peak sales estimates for Haduvio have increased to $1.7 billion, reflecting a favorable outlook for its commercialization across idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and other indications, along with potential revenue from ex-U.S. markets and prurigo nodularis.

Trevi Therapeutics Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to substantial projected operating expenses associated with the clinical development of its investigational therapy, Haduvio, which is expected to result in significant cash burn and necessitate further financing before reaching breakeven. The discounted cash flow (DCF) model reflects a 12% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and anticipates a 7% terminal decline post-2035, indicating challenges in sustaining growth. Additionally, comparative efficacy data from competing therapies such as GSK's camlipixant and Merck's gefapixant suggest that Haduvio may struggle to achieve competitive market positioning and profitability in the future.