TRVI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trevi Therapeutics Inc has demonstrated a positive outlook for its investigational therapy Haduvio, driven by increased projected sales for multiple indications due to favorable efficacy data and potential market penetration. The results from the RIVER RCC trial, alongside notable improvements in patient-reported outcomes and the absence of new safety signals, contribute to heightened confidence in the therapy's performance. Additionally, management's revised sales projections have elevated anticipated peak sales to $1.7 billion, offering significant growth potential, particularly with opportunities in international markets and prurigo nodularis.

Trevi Therapeutics, focused on developing Haduvio for chronic cough and prurigo nodularis, faces a challenging financial outlook due to significant and escalating operating expenses associated with its clinical development efforts. The company's discounted cash flow analysis indicates a terminal decline of 7% post-2035, stemming from the anticipated peak performance of Haduvio followed by its market entry as a generic product, which may not provide sustainable growth. Furthermore, projected product launch timelines indicate delays until 2029, coupled with substantial expected cash burn, implying the necessity for ongoing financing which could further dilute shareholder value.