TRVI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trevi Therapeutics Inc demonstrates a positive outlook due to increased projected sales for its investigational therapy, Haduvio, substantiated by strong clinical data highlighting low-dose and rapid efficacy, which enhance market penetration. The RIVER RCC trial provided consistent and remarkable improvements in responder rates, complemented by supportive patient-reported outcomes, further validating the therapy's effectiveness without any new safety concerns. Additionally, the company anticipates substantial growth in peak sales, projecting $1.7 billion across IPF-CC and RCC indications, while potential international revenue and developments in prurigo nodularis could offer further upside.

Trevi Therapeutics's financial outlook is negatively impacted by its projected launch delay of Haduvio until 2029, which contributes to substantial anticipated losses and increased cash burn in the intervening years. The company's reliance on continuous funding to support escalating operating expenses for the clinical development of nalbuphine ER raises financing risks, especially in light of recent competitive products exhibiting lower efficacy. Finally, the incorporation of a 12% WACC discount rate and a terminal decline of 7% from 2035 highlights significant concerns regarding the long-term viability and profitability of Trevi's product pipeline.