Trupanion (TRUP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trupanion is experiencing declining market share and decelerating IRR, with a below-target IRR of 23% in 4Q25. Despite attempts to boost gross additions and reach a wider range of pet owners, the company has not rolled out any new plans and its IRR continues to suffer.

Trupanion is performing well in terms of revenue, with a forecasted growth in subscription revenue of 13.9% at the midpoint and a strong adjusted operating income margin of 15.3%. However, there are risks to the company's rating and target price, including possible incorrect assumptions on customer lifetime value, increased competition, and regulatory compliance requirements. Although shares may be undervalued, there is a possibility of consolidation in the industry. Some positive developments mentioned are the forthcoming 36-month plan, high retention rates, and better-than-expected subscription adjusted operating income. However, the increase in subscription pet enrollment is lower than expected due to seasonality.