TC Energy (TRP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TC Energy is supported by a durable, utility-like cash flow base, with over 95% of EBITDA underpinned by rate-regulation or long-term contracts and a portfolio anchored by interconnected North American gas pipelines plus Bruce Power. Strong demand trends across the U.S. Heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, combined with oversubscribed open seasons, the US$1.5 billion Appalachia Supply Project, and more than $23 billion of secured growth capital, point to visible expansion opportunities with attractive 5-7x build multiples and about 12.5% unlevered after-tax IRRs. Regulatory settlements on Canadian Mainline, ANR, and Great Lakes should stabilize roughly $1.5-2.0 billion of EBITDA, while management’s progress toward the 4.75x debt/EBITDA target and 2026 EBITDA guidance of $11.6-11.8 billion reinforces balance-sheet discipline and earnings quality.

TC Energy is facing a negative outlook because its earnings profile remains vulnerable to operational setbacks, construction delays, and unrecovered cost overruns, while leverage could worsen if capital discipline slips or dilutive financing is needed to defend the credit rating. Even with EBITDA of $3.088 billion and normalized EPS of $0.99, results are exposed to weak asset-specific trends, including Bruce Power’s 88% availability during a planned Unit 8 outage and Mexico pipeline flows averaging 2.8 Bcf/d in Q1/26 after year-over-year declines. Its North American pipeline network also depends on continued project approvals, shareholder support, and tariff-sensitive sentiment, making future cash flow growth uncertain and increasing downside risk.