Tronox (TROX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tronox Holdings PLC is poised for positive growth, with estimates indicating mid-single-digit (MSD) top-line growth and a projected 200 basis points margin expansion, primarily due to mining expansions and the management of higher-cost inventory. Furthermore, potential recovery signs in China could lead to increased demand, benefit from global restocking, and support higher EBITDA figures in the long term. The company's favorable free cash flow positions it for effective deleveraging, enhancing its financial stability and attractiveness to investors.

Tronox Holdings PLC faces a challenging financial landscape, with 2025 earnings anticipated to fall well below expectations, primarily due to a tough demand environment and declining pricing, resulting in a projected Q2 EBITDA of $107 million. In the event of a deep recession, EBITDA is expected to drop approximately 27% to $411 million, exacerbated by a potential 3% decline in pricing and an 8% reduction in volumes, despite minimal impact from TiO2-specific tariffs. Furthermore, significant risks to earnings and cash flows for 2025 and 2026, coupled with high leverage, raise concerns regarding the sustainability of dividend payments.