Targa Resources (TRGP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Targa Resources is a premium operator of natural gas gathering and processing assets, with a strong foothold in major plays such as the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken. Its integrated infrastructure network and commercial execution position the company to capture sustained tailwinds. Key financials include expected growth Capex of ~$4.5BN and ~$250MM maintenance Capex, as well as annual dividend per share estimates of $5.00/share in 2026, $6.00/share in 2027, and $7.00/share in 2028. Furthermore, TRGP is committed to sustainability through measures such as reducing emissions and minimizing its impact on the environment. Risks to the positive outlook include potential decreases in producer activity and demand for certain NGL products, as well as lower commodity prices and execution risk on new projects.

Targa Resources is facing pressure on several fronts, including the negative public perception of the fossil fuel industry and the potential for increased carbon accounting regulations. Despite a strong 2Q26 and high-end guidance for Adj. EBITDA, the company could face challenges in volume growth and project returns as weaker commodity prices may delay production activity. With the potential for lower volume growth and projected returns, our analysis leads us to a downside scenario with a blended EV/EBITDA multiple of ~10x our 2027E EBITDA and ~9x our 2028E EBITDA, resulting in a target price of $200.