Targa Resources (TRGP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Targa Resources's positive outlook is grounded in a solid fundamental backdrop that is driving EBITDA growth and enhancing financial flexibility, which in turn supports increased shareholder returns. The midstream firm benefits from a large, well-capitalized producer customer set that ensures resilient production, particularly through its integrated Permian-to-Gulf Coast assets. Additionally, Targa's strong performance in 3Q25 and expectations of significant volume growth in the Permian indicate promising cash flow inflections and strong free cash flow generation in the coming years.

The negative outlook on Targa Resources's stock is primarily driven by concerns over declining producer activity, which could substantially decrease volume growth across the company's systems. Additionally, the potential for lower-than-expected demand for ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGL) purity products poses a risk to pricing and profit margins, further impacting financial performance. Execution risks related to new projects, coupled with the potential for decreased commodity prices and slower US onshore unconventional resource development, compound the challenges facing Targa Resources in the near term.