Trex (TREX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trex Co Inc has demonstrated significant consumer acceptance of its newly launched products, which accounted for 25% of trailing-twelve-month sales, reflecting an increase from 22% in the previous quarter and a notable rise from 13% a year ago. The company reported a 2%-3% growth in decking project activity through the third quarter of 2025, supported by effective marketing campaigns and increased website traffic and sample orders. Additionally, Trex continues to anticipate long-term revenue growth potential driven by a resilient renovation market and strategic gains in market share, which may be further amplified by operational efficiencies and alignment with distributors.

Trex Co Inc has revised its sales guidance for fiscal year 2025 to flat year-over-year growth, significantly down from the previous expectation of 5-7% growth, reflecting challenges in consumer demand and market conditions. The company's EBITDA of $90 million fell short of the forecast due to a gross margin of 31.7%, which is lower than anticipated, alongside rising branding and marketing expenses. Furthermore, as the stock is expected to open down sharply, with fiscal year 2026 earnings trading at near 10-year trough multiples, the company's outlook appears increasingly pessimistic amid heightened competition and reduced revenue expectations.