Trex (TREX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trex Co Inc has demonstrated significant growth in its product offerings, with new launches accounting for 25% of trailing-twelve-month sales, indicating strong consumer acceptance and effective marketing strategies despite challenging macro conditions. The company's 4Q guidance reflects optimism for future performance, driven by a predicted recovery in the renovation and remodeling market, as well as operational efficiencies that could bolster margins toward 30%+. Furthermore, data from decking surveys highlight modest growth in project activity among contractors, suggesting a resilient demand for Trex's innovative outdoor products.

Trex Co. Inc. has revised its sales guidance to flat year-over-year growth, a significant downgrade from the previously anticipated 5-7% growth, reflecting deteriorating consumer demand and channel destocking. Additionally, the company reported EBITDA of $90 million, falling short of forecasts, with a margin decline and increased marketing and SG&A expenditures further impacting profitability. After-hours trading indicated a sharp decline in share price, exacerbated by heightened competitive pressures and a bleak outlook for gross margins heading into 2026, resulting in substantial year-to-date losses for investors.