TPB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Turning Point Brands Inc. has demonstrated a positive trajectory in market share, with in-store presence increasing by 50 basis points to 11.2%, alongside improved consumer offtake despite overall category declines. The company's oral nicotine revenue is projected to significantly boost its consolidated sales, expecting to surpass the legacy Stoker's segment by 2028 and Zig-Zag by 2030, driven by strong gains in modern oral products and consistent market share growth in MST. Additionally, the MST segment shows robust sales growth of 6% year-over-year, indicating successful positioning within the discount tobacco category, which aligns with changing consumer behaviors.

Turning Point Brands Inc faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook, particularly due to market share erosion in its Stoker’s moist snuff tobacco products and a shift away from smokeable cannabis, both of which are anticipated to adversely affect revenue and earnings. Additionally, the company's gross margins are expected to contract, particularly in the Zig-Zag product line, which is projected to see a decline of nearly 200 basis points, while Stoker's is expected to experience a lesser deterioration of 80 basis points. Furthermore, the EBITDA forecast for 2025 at approximately $110 million falls slightly below the midpoint of current guidance, indicating heightened concerns regarding overall financial performance amid increased tariff risks.