TPB Stock Forecast & Price Target

Turning Point Brands Inc. has demonstrated a 50 basis point increase in its share of in-store markets, reaching 11.2%, indicating a positive trend in consumer offtake amidst declining categories. The company’s oral nicotine segment is poised for significant growth, with expectations that it will eclipse the revenue contributions of both Stoker's and Zig-Zag by 2030, driven by market share gains and demand for modern oral products. Additionally, the Stoker's MST segment has shown a 6% year-over-year increase in sales, boosted by a shift towards discount offerings and a less brand-conscious customer base, positioning the company favorably for future revenue expansion.

Turning Point Brands Inc faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily due to market share erosion in its Stoker’s moist snuff tobacco (MST) products and evolving consumer preferences leading to reduced demand for smokeable cannabis flower, which may adversely affect revenue and earnings. Furthermore, the company is projected to experience a sequential revenue decline in the second quarter, with expectations set at $18.2 million, indicating potential underperformance relative to previous market expectations. Additionally, gross margin pressures are anticipated, particularly with the Zig-Zag segment expected to contract nearly 200 basis points, and an overall EBITDA forecast of approximately $110 million for 2025 suggests challenges related to increased tariff risks and a negative product mix in Stoker's.