Toast (TOST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Toast is projected to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $565 million and $585 million for fiscal year 2024, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates. The company has demonstrated strong market penetration by adding a record 8,500 restaurant locations in the second quarter, indicating robust demand for its technology solutions. For fiscal year 2025, Toast anticipates a gross profit of $1.815 billion to $1.835 billion from subscription services and FinTech solutions, further supporting a positive long-term growth trajectory driven by expanding its customer base and increasing recurring revenue per restaurant location.

Toast faces a negative outlook primarily due to potential stagnation in recurring revenue growth, particularly if an economic downturn dampens consumer spending and slows the opening of new restaurants. Furthermore, the company is currently unprofitable, with ongoing investments for growth expected to continue contributing to losses, which raises concerns about execution risk if the business model fails to scale effectively. Additionally, persistent supply chain issues and chip shortages could hinder hardware availability and customer onboarding processes, further impeding growth prospects.