T-Mobile US (TMUS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

T-Mobile US is positioned for sustained outperformance because its leading network, record customer satisfaction, and strong switching share continue to convert into durable subscriber gains and pricing power, even as competition and satellite threats intensify. Financial momentum remains solid, with Q2 service revenue up 9% year over year, postpaid service revenue up 13%, core adjusted EBITDA up 12%, and 2026 guidance calling for roughly $77 billion of service revenue, $37.1 billion to $37.5 billion of EBITDA, and $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion of free cash flow. Growth is broadened by around 87 million postpaid and 26 million prepaid phone customers, about 9 million fixed-wireless broadband customers, more than 1 million fiber customers through joint ventures, and rising ARPA, premium-plan adoption, and disciplined capital allocation.

T-Mobile US is facing a tougher fundamental setup because its premium valuation leaves little room for a lighter revenue trajectory, even as the company’s 3Q EBITDA guide of $9.4B came in below expectations and below the prior quarter. Although phone churn of 0.85% signals healthy adds and FCF guidance was raised, the outlook is clouded by rising competition from Verizon, AT&T, and cable MVNOs, along with higher iPhone subsidy and input-cost pressure that could squeeze margins. Execution risk also remains elevated across the Sprint integration, the Challenger strategy, and continued investment in FWA and fiber JVs, where growth may not fully offset slower EBITDA momentum.