T-Mobile US (TMUS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

T-Mobile US is benefiting from a structurally strong wireless position, with about 30% of the US retail wireless market, 86 million postpaid and 26 million prepaid customers, and a network that continues to win share through superior quality, low churn, and premium-plan selection. Its growth outlook is reinforced by diversified monetization across fixed-wireless broadband, roughly 8 million residential and business customers, and 1 million fiber broadband customers via joint ventures, while wholesale revenue streams add further resilience. Financially, the company’s 2026 framework points to service revenue of about $77.0B, core adjusted EBITDA of $37.1B-$37.5B, and adjusted free cash flow of $18.4B-$18.8B, supporting strong earnings conversion and buyback capacity.

T-Mobile US is exposed to execution risk as the Sprint integration and synergy realization remain uncertain, while the Challenger strategy could pressure service performance and operating margins. The company’s scale is strong, with about 86 million postpaid and 26 million prepaid customers, plus 8 million fixed-wireless and 1 million fiber broadband customers, but growth is increasingly challenged by large, scalable rivals like Verizon and AT&T and by cable companies entering mobile through MVNOs. Wholesale and other revenue is expected to be roughly flat as Dish and TracFone run-off becomes clearer, and the business faces regulatory, technological, and macroeconomic pressures that could weigh on demand, pricing, and valuation.