TMCI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Treace Medical Concepts has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, with a notable 21% year-over-year increase in the number of active surgeons, reaching a total of 2,691, along with a steady utilization rate projected to increase to approximately 10.5 kits per surgeon in 2023. The introduction of the PEEK Hammertoe fixation system is anticipated to enhance revenue-per-procedure while concurrently boosting the company’s active surgeon base, leveraging the natural overlap of hammertoe and bunion procedures. Overall, Treace is well-positioned for above-peer revenue growth, supported by its strategic product launches and an expanding total addressable market.

Treace Medical Concepts Inc reported disappointing 3Q23 performance, which is expected to lead to a lower stock opening as investors react to negative guidance and multi-year estimate revisions. The company's full-year 2023 sales guidance was revised down by approximately $10 million, now projecting revenue of $182-$186 million, translating to a growth rate of 28-31% year-over-year, which is below the consensus expectations. Furthermore, the forecasted revenue for 4Q23 indicates a potential struggle, as it is projected to be around $59 million at the midpoint, reflecting a growth rate of only 19% year-over-year, which positions the company at a valuation multiple lower than its high-growth orthopedic peers despite similar growth potential.