TJX (TJX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TJX Companies reported a substantial increase in inventory, which reached $9.4 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth. The company anticipates operating margins to expand to 11.5% for the upcoming fiscal year, while specific segments demonstrated notable margin improvements, including Marmaxx's operating margin rising 60 basis points to 14.9% and HomeGoods increasing by 120 basis points to 13.5%. Additionally, the firm recorded total comparable store sales growth of 5%, aided by an uptick in both pricing and transactions, positioning the company for continued revenue growth at a mid-single-digit percentage rate in line with its long-term store expansion goals.

TJX Companies is currently anticipated to report 4Q25 EPS in the range of $1.33-$1.36, representing modest growth over last year's EPS of $1.23, yet falling short of previous consensus estimates of $1.37. The company faces significant challenges, including an adverse impact from increased shrink levels, unpredictable freight rates, and the implementation of new tariffs, particularly a 55% tariff from India. Additionally, broader retail sector volatility, heightened competition, and rising operational costs pose underlying risks to the company's financial stability and growth potential.