Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tenet Healthcare is supported by resilient operating momentum, as 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.162 billion beat Street expectations by 4% while revenue was only slightly below, and the company reaffirmed 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance even after a solid quarter. Its hospital and USPI businesses both showed effective cost control and margin strength, with hospital EBITDA up 8% above Stephens estimates despite a 4% y/y decline and USPI EBITDA up 6% y/y, while same-facility surgical revenue rose 5.3% on higher net revenue per case. The outlook is further reinforced by strong cash generation, with 1Q26 operating cash flow of $1.641 billion, adjusted FCF of $978 million, and net leverage of 2.24x, giving it flexibility to repurchase shares and keep investing in growth.

Tenet Healthcare is facing a material fundamental deterioration from the expiration of ACA enhanced subsidies, which management estimates will create a roughly $250 million full-year EBITDA headwind in 2026 tied to a 20% decline in HIX enrollment and limited visibility into re-enrollment. 1Q26 already showed the pressure, with Hospital/USPI EBITDA of $678 million/$484 million representing only 27.5%/22.0% of full-year guidance, HIX revenues down about 9% year over year, and revenue per adjusted admission falling 1.5% as HIX volumes weakened. Although expense controls and automation may help, the stock’s outlook remains negative because regulatory risk, unfavorable payor mix, and exposure to elective procedure softness can limit volume growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow.