Tenet Healthcare (THC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tenet Healthcare demonstrated strong financial performance in the third quarter, with consolidated net operating revenue rising to $5.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Key metrics include a 1.6% year-over-year increase in same-facility admissions and a 7.7% growth in same-facility revenue, supported by a favorable payor mix and the management of high-acuity cases, which contributed to a 5.9% increase in revenue per adjusted admission. Additionally, Tenet's management raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $21.15 billion and $21.35 billion, reflecting confidence in sustained organic growth across its segments.

The analysis highlights several fundamental concerns contributing to a negative outlook for Tenet Healthcare's stock. A notable decline in hospital volumes and uncertain future projections regarding the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (eAPTCs) by the end of 2025 pose significant risks, potentially affecting EBITDA by as much as $354 million. Furthermore, Tenet's anticipated EBITDA growth for the third quarter of 2025 underperformed relative to its peers, raising concerns about top-line growth and margin expansion opportunities amid escalating costs and inflationary pressures.