Target (TGT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Target operates nearly 2,000 stores across the United States and reported over $106 billion in sales for fiscal 2024, with a diverse product range contributing to its revenue—30% from beauty and household essentials, 23% from food and beverage, and significant portions from apparel and hardlines. The company's strong performance is bolstered by its extensive physical store base, which facilitates over 97% of sales, and the fact that around 30% of total sales come from private-label brands, enhancing margins. Additionally, Target's planned capital expenditures of $5 billion for FY'26, aimed at store remodels and technology investments, position the company well for future growth, particularly as supply chain advantages allow it to capture market share from smaller competitors amidst challenging market conditions.

Target's sales growth remains modest, with e-commerce expanding by only 2.4% while store comparable sales experienced a significant decline of 3.8%, indicating weakening consumer demand and traffic stagnation. The company's traffic trends have decelerated further, showing a year-over-year decrease of 2.2% and a concerning downward trajectory in three-year stacked comparable sales. Additionally, Target has lowered its earnings per share guidance for 2025 to a range of $7-$8, reflecting a more challenging outlook due to persistent volatility and disappointing performance in the most recent quarter.