TFI International (TFII) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TFI International is positioned to benefit from an earnings inflection, as Q1/26 adjusted EBITDA of $241 million and EPS of $0.69 both topped expectations, followed by Q2 EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.60 that is above the $1.31 consensus. Its Less-Than-Truckload business is showing a meaningful turnaround, with March shipments up 8% year over year, delayed pricing actions taking effect, and management guiding for 600 to 700 basis points of sequential operating-ratio improvement. Truckload and Logistics also support the bullish view through 9% higher revenue per truck per week, 7% fewer trucks, and expanding niche contracts, while the stock still trades at a discount to peers on 2027 earnings.

TFI International is facing a negative outlook because its core Less-Than-Truckload business is deteriorating, with EBITDA of $79MM falling year over year as freight volumes softened, revenue declined 3%, and OR worsened to 95.3% amid weather disruptions and delayed GRI implementation. Although Truckload and Logistics showed relative resilience, with Truckload OR improving to 92.7% and Logistics margin strength helping offset some weakness, consolidated adjusted EBITDA still fell 7% year over year to $241M and free cash flow dropped 35%. The combination of persistent U.S. LTL density challenges, tariff-related demand uncertainty, weak freight markets, and exposure to macro slowdown and pricing pressure suggests earnings quality remains fragile despite the Q1 EPS beat.