TFI International (TFII) Stock Forecast & Price Target

TFI International Inc. has demonstrated notable financial improvement, with revenue per package increasing by 1.1% year-over-year, marking the first positive comparison in ten quarters, alongside a shipment volume growth of 1.4% year-over-year. The company's EBIT revenue also reflected a positive trend, rising 2.5% year-over-year to approximately $125 million for the first time in 12 quarters, and ongoing efficiency initiatives are expected to enhance margins as volumes continue to increase. Additionally, TFI's logistics segment has exceeded expectations for the quarter, supported by better margins and significant improvements in service metrics, including increased on-time deliveries and reduced missed pickups, positioning the company favorably for future growth and profitability.

TFI International Inc. is experiencing significant challenges within its Truckload segment, which has reported revenue pressure and is forecasted to continue facing a freight recession that has lasted for several years, negatively impacting both volumes and profitability. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company's revenue declined by 13% year-over-year to $410 million, with an operational ratio deteriorating by 110 basis points to 89.5%, signaling weakening financial performance. Furthermore, the LTL shipments dropped 6% year-over-year and EBITDA results fell short of expectations, prompting a downward revision of the 2025 Truckload EBITDA estimate to $659 million, reinforcing concerns about the overall health of the business amidst a competitive and challenging market landscape.