TE Stock Forecast & Price Target

T1 Energy Inc. has maintained its 2025 guidance, leading to a positive stock movement and reflecting robust growth expectations, particularly with estimated shipments increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% through 2028. The company's earnings per share (EPS) have shown significant improvement, moving from -$2.59 in Q4'24 to -$0.10 in Q2'25, indicating a narrowing of losses amidst anticipated gross margin increases from around 25.6% in 2026 to approximately 36.9% by 2028. Additionally, the projected surge in U.S. electricity demand—expected to rise from 24GW to 166GW over the next five years—supports T1 Energy's strategic positioning in the energy solutions market, particularly in solar and battery supply chains.

T1 Energy's financial outlook is adversely affected by a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA, which dropped to -$14.6 million in Q3'25, compared to a modest gain of $1.0 million in Q2'25. The company's EPS further deteriorated, declining from -20 cents in Q2'25 to -81 cents in Q3'25, indicating worsening financial performance. Compounding these challenges are external risks, including potential tariff implications, slower-than-expected global demand for solar modules, and concerns over polysilicon price dynamics, all of which contribute to negative growth projections for FY25 and FY26.