Trip.com (TCOM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Trip.com Group is positioned for robust growth, with the potential to increase revenue in the mid-teens percentage year-over-year, driven by significant advancements in both domestic and outbound travel demand. In particular, the company has demonstrated strong performance metrics, with accommodation reservations growing by 23% year-over-year, and international travel sales surging by 30%, further highlighting Trip.com’s competitive edge in a recovering market. The anticipated expansion of cross-border travel capability, projected to surpass 90% of 2019 levels by the end of 2025, suggests a compelling trajectory for sustained double-digit growth, enhancing Trip.com's prospects for margin expansion in the years ahead.

Trip.com Group faces a challenging landscape, with management indicating that domestic hotel pricing remains down year-over-year due to supply growth. The company is also experiencing a decline in gross margin, leading to a lower margin guidance of approximately 28%, which represents a 150 basis point decrease year-over-year. Furthermore, macroeconomic concerns suggest a potential contraction in consumer travel spending, presenting risks to industry growth and impacting outbound revenue trends, which have slowed to approximately 12-17% growth, below expectations.