Stantec (STN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Stantec is positioned well fundamentally because Q2 showed resilient demand despite mixed revenue execution, with 3.7% YoY organic net revenue growth, a 54.5% project margin, and an 18.7% adjusted EBITDA margin that expanded about 90 bps YoY. Backlog rose to $9.2B, up 17.5% YoY, while the Global segment again outperformed at 12.8% YoY organically, supported by Water and Energy & Resources, and management expects Global to keep leading with HSD% growth. The balance sheet and capital allocation also support the bullish view, as net leverage stayed at 1.3x, the company repurchased about $176M of stock in Q2, and it remains active on M&A with strong flexibility.

Stantec is facing a negative outlook because the downside scenario assumes lower-than-expected organic revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margin contraction across the forecast horizon, reflecting a softer macro backdrop. Demand weakness in its largest end-markets—Water, Buildings, and Infrastructure—would pressure the company’s core revenue base, especially since Infrastructure is its largest business unit. In addition, the assumption of no meaningful M&A removes a potential growth lever, and applying a ~9.0x multiple to blended 2026/2027 EBITDA underscores limited valuation support under these conditions.