ShotSpotter (SSTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SoundThinking Inc. is expected to achieve approximately 10% revenue growth, along with an impressive adjusted EBITDA increase of nearly 50% above its prior record, reflecting strong operational performance. The company has successfully secured more “replacement” recurring revenues, significantly boosting its valuation after previous setbacks, resulting in record revenue and earnings results. Additionally, the introduction of the SafePointe passive screening service is anticipated to enhance annual revenue growth by around 5% if sustained, further solidifying the company's positive financial outlook.

SoundThinking Inc. has demonstrated a concerning financial trajectory, as evidenced by a 10% year-over-year revenue decline in 4Q24, primarily due to the exit from the Chicago market and a $3.5 million impact from late renewals. Despite previously high Adjusted EBITDA, the company fell short of forecasts, reporting $4.5 million against a projected $6.2 million, burdened by approximately $1 million in unanticipated costs. Moreover, the company's shares have plummeted 70% from their 2021 highs, compounded by a consistent history of negative GAAP operating earnings, raising significant concerns about its financial stability moving forward.