SRAD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sportradar Group AG has demonstrated a robust potential for growth, with projected full-year revenue increasing nearly 30%, which, if included in management's guidance, would contribute approximately €140 million and enhance adjusted EBITDA by nearly €35 million. The company is forecasted to achieve a 35% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in free cash flow through 2028, supported by a 20% average rise in operating cash flow and a controlled 10% increase in capital expenditures. Additionally, the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 220 basis points to 22.3%, primarily driven by operational efficiencies.

Sportradar Group AG faces a negative outlook due to the decline in the percentage of wagers placed with legal operators in Illinois, which decreased from 94% to 89% following a tax rate increase in July 2024. This reduced engagement may signal broader industry challenges that could negatively impact Sportradar's revenue and growth, particularly as increased operator taxes and stricter compliance requirements potentially limit overall betting handle and gross gaming revenue (GGR). Despite modestly exceeding consensus forecasts in 2Q25, with revenue growth of 14% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 31%, these underlying issues raise concerns about the sustainability of future performance.