SRAD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sportradar Group AG is projected to achieve a full-year revenue growth of nearly 30%, potentially adding approximately €140 million to its financials, with an adjusted EBITDA improvement of nearly €35 million. The company is expected to experience free cash flow (FCF) growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% through 2028, supported by a 20% average increase in operating cash flow (OCF) alongside a modest 10% rise in capital expenditures. Furthermore, the adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to expand by 220 basis points to 22.3%, reflecting effective operating leverage and enhanced profitability.

The outlook for Sportradar Group AG is negatively influenced by recent regulatory changes, such as a tax rate increase in Illinois that resulted in a decrease in the percentage of wagers placed with legal operators from 94% to 89%. Although the company's 2Q25 financial results showed a modest increase in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, the potential for increased operator taxes and stricter compliance requirements poses significant risks, which could lead to a reduction in overall betting handle and gross gaming revenue. These factors may undermine the long-term growth prospects for Sportradar in the sports betting industry, raising concerns about its ability to maintain momentum despite short-term revenue increases.