S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

S&P Global is positioned for durable compounding because its benchmark franchises generate more than 80% of operating profit, with Ratings and Indices benefiting from multi-year tailwinds tied to strong nominal GDP, AI-related capex, and an approximately $11tn refinancing wall over the next roughly 4.5 years. Its Market Intelligence business is also improving, as 2Q26 organic revenue grew about 6%, operating margin reached about 36.0%, and management is seeing better-than-expected upside from AI/MCP adoption, platform consolidation, and Enterprise Data Organization savings that are already about 60% complete. Shareholder returns and financial discipline further strengthen the thesis, with about $7bn of FY26E buybacks, expected leverage of about 2.7x-2.8x EBITDA by year-end 2026, and a path back toward the target range by year-end 2027, while Energy and private markets add additional growth optionality.

S&P Global is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop as its downside case assumes multiple contraction to about 20x FY27E EPS and FY27 EPS 10% below estimates, driven by moderating revenue growth. The outlook is pressured by a potential decline in credit issuance, slower Market Intelligence growth, and macro sensitivity tied to debt issuance, while competitive pressure in market data and softer demand for Platts could further weigh on performance. Additional risks include acquisition integration challenges, regulatory scrutiny, and a decline in AUM linked to SPGI indices, even as the Mobility spin-off and resegmentation complicate near-term comparisons.