S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

S&P Global is well positioned to compound growth because its Ratings and Index businesses are supported by broad secular tailwinds, including strong nominal GDP growth, AI-related capex, and an ~$11tn refinancing wall over the next ~4.5 years. Its largest revenue segment, Market Intelligence, is stabilizing near-term and should improve over the medium term as AI/MCP traction, sales-cycle normalization, and platform consolidation support better margins, while Energy is expected to accelerate in 2H26 and into 2027. The company also benefits from high incremental margins, over 500 MCP customers in 2Q26, about ~$7bn of FY26 repurchases, and a bias toward returning ~85% or more of free cash flow in 2027, reinforcing earnings growth and shareholder value creation.

S&P Global is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because Market Intelligence growth is being pressured by elongated sales cycles, especially among a small set of large clients negotiating AI data usage rights and local storage permissions, while Sustainability budgets were cut more sharply than expected in 2Q26. Energy revenue grew only about 3% in 2Q26 as Iran-related disruption and extreme volatility weighed on customer activity, and management’s decision to extend contracts at current pricing held back near-term revenue expansion. Combined with risks tied to lower credit issuance, tougher competition in market data, and the Mobility spin-off, the company’s growth profile and earnings power appear vulnerable.