SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

SoFi Technologies is viewed positively because its 1Q results showed strong operating momentum, with GAAP revenue of $1.10 billion up 43% year over year, adjusted revenue of $1.09 billion up 41%, and EBITDA of $339.9 million, all supported by margin expansion and a 5.94% NIM. Its bank charter and well-capitalized balance sheet appear to widen the competitive moat, enabling 68% year-over-year origination growth and better unit economics than non-bank peers, especially if capital markets become choppier. The business also benefits from a growing, profitable user base and 19.3 million total products, while technology products and solutions provide a multi-year tailwind as the platform scales.

SoFi Technologies is showing strong top-line growth, but the fundamentals behind a negative outlook remain tied to its dependence on lending and capital markets. While 1Q26 adjusted net revenue rose 41% to $1.087B and originations climbed 68% to $12.2B, the Technology segment shrank 27% to $75M and its contribution margin fell to 16%, signaling weakness outside core lending. In addition, 2Q guidance for adjusted EPS of $0.10-$0.11 trails the Street’s $0.14, and the company faces ongoing risks from competition, regulation, credit deterioration, and reliance on ABS markets to fund growth.