SMPL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Simply Good Foods is projected to achieve an 8.5% reported sales growth in FY25, fueled by over 2% organic sales growth and a significant 12% increase in revenue from its Quest brand. This positive outlook is further supported by expectations of improved organic growth in FY26, bolstered by the successful integration of the OWYN acquisition and enhanced performance from the Atkins brand. The company's substantial revenue generation from North America, combined with its diversified product offerings, positions it favorably within the consumer packaged food and beverage market.

Simply Good Foods's outlook is negatively impacted by a projected gross margin decline of 210 basis points to 36.9% in FY25, indicating potential ongoing profitability challenges. While the Quest brand is expected to experience growth, with an estimated 11.5% increase driven by product innovations and marketing, the Atkins brand is forecasted to decline by 14% due to diminished promotional levels and distribution losses. Additionally, weakening base velocity trends for Atkins suggest a potential for further distribution losses, which could adversely affect future estimates and overall performance.