SMPL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Simply Good Foods Co is projected to achieve 8.5% reported sales growth in FY25, supported by over 2% organic sales growth, with the Quest brand anticipated to experience a robust 12% increase. Despite a forecasted 12% decline for the Atkins brand, the overall growth is bolstered by the strong performance of Quest and an optimistic outlook for FY26, which will benefit from the integration of the OWYN acquisition and improved performance in Atkins. The company's focus on protein-rich products catering to health-conscious consumers positions it favorably within the competitive landscape of the packaged food and beverage market.

Simply Good Foods is facing a projected 210 basis points decline in gross margins, reducing expectations to 36.9% for FY25. The anticipated performance of its brands suggests contrasting trends, with Quest expected to grow by 11.5% driven by innovation and marketing, while Atkins is forecasted to decline by 14% due to challenges such as promotional lapses and distribution losses. Additionally, weakening base velocity trends for Atkins signal potential further losses, contributing to lowered FY26 estimates and raising concerns about the company’s financial outlook despite its valuation metrics suggesting an undervaluation based on its growth prospects.