SMBC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc is poised for positive financial performance, with forecasts indicating an improvement in its efficiency ratio to 49% by FY4Q27, driven by robust net interest income growth from fixed-rate loan repricing and declining funding costs. The projected tangible common equity (TCE) is anticipated to rise to between 10.3% and 11.3% by FY4Q26 and FY4Q27, reflecting solid operational stability and a favorable capital position. Furthermore, the company's interest rate spread is expected to expand by 19-20 basis points to 3.50% and 3.69% over the same period, supported by strong loan origination dynamics and advantageous movements in fixed-rate loan pricing.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc faces several challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including slower-than-expected growth in loans, core deposits, and fee income, alongside potential credit quality deterioration and increased operating expenses. The company's revenue from securities gains and one-time items is 15% of total revenue over the last twelve months, which is slightly below industry peers at 17%, indicating underperformance. Additionally, the reliance on various macroeconomic factors and merger and acquisition execution adds further uncertainty to the bank's financial stability and growth prospects.