Silence Therapeutics (SLN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Silence Therapeutics is viewed favorably because its SANRECO Phase 2 data for divesiran showed compelling biologic and clinical validation in polycythemia vera, with 87.5% response versus 18.8% on placebo, while Phase 1 suggested durable phlebotomy reduction, a median 287-day time to first phlebotomy, and supportive symptom and iron-biology improvements. The Merck acquisition further validates the mRNAi GOLD platform and strengthens confidence that divesiran can become a first-in-class, potentially best-in-class siRNA therapy, especially given the convenience advantage of every-6-week or every-12-week dosing versus weekly hepcidin-axis competitors. At a market cap of about $300M, the shares appear materially undervalued relative to the program’s high 75% probability of success, strong Phase 1 profile, and the strategic value implied by rusfertide’s $1-$2.3B NPV benchmark.

Silence Therapeutics is facing a weaker fundamental profile because the Lp(a)HORIZON Phase 3 miss removed the key external catalyst for zerlasiran and undermined the broader Lp(a)-lowering thesis, making the pipeline more dependent on divesiran. The proposed Merck acquisition also crystallizes a much lower valuation framework, with an enterprise value of $1.1 billion, equity value of about $1.3 billion, and a modeled need for annual capital raises of $200 million from 2028E to 2031E that could dilute shareholders. With zerlasiran assigned 0% probability of success, divesiran only 60%, and a wide set of clinical, competitive, reimbursement, and commercialization risks, the company’s upside appears constrained despite its RNAi platform.