SJM Stock Forecast & Price Target

J.M. Smucker is poised for a positive outlook due to expected price increases in its coffee segment, projected to boost pricing by 20% in the U.S. over several key periods, contributing to overall anticipated sales growth. The company's overall sales guidance suggests a healthy range of 2%-4% reported sales growth, despite facing a minor headwind from divested snack brands. Additionally, forecasted free cash flow for FY26 is set to reach $875 million, reflecting an increase due to a reduction in capital expenditures, which enhances the company’s financial flexibility.

JM Smucker reported a 4Q25 EPS of $2.31, reflecting a 13% decline from the prior year, despite slightly exceeding both internal and consensus estimates due to improved gross margins. For FY26, the company has forecasted an 11% decline in EPS, significantly below previous estimates, attributed to increased price sensitivity impacting the coffee segment, tariff implications, and diminished profitability in the Sweet Baked Snacks category. This outlook raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain earnings growth amid challenges in key segments and external economic pressures.