SJM Stock Forecast & Price Target

J.M. Smucker is projected to see reported sales growth between 2% and 4%, buoyed by pricing increases in its major segment of retail coffee, which is expected to rise by 20% in the U.S. over the next two years. The company anticipates free cash flow will increase to $875 million in fiscal year 2026, reflecting a more efficient capital expenditure strategy with spending decreasing to approximately 3.6% of sales from 4.5%. Overall, the guidance for comparable sales growth is strong, projected at 3.5% to 5.5%, signaling a robust financial trajectory despite some headwinds.

J.M. Smucker reported a 4Q25 EPS of $2.31, reflecting a 13% decline from the previous year, despite beating both internal and consensus estimates due to improved gross margins. The company's initial guidance for FY26 predicts an 11% decline in EPS, significantly affected by increased volume elasticity in the coffee segment, tariff impacts, and decreased profitability in the Sweet Baked Snacks category. These factors contribute to a pessimistic outlook for the company’s financial performance moving forward, raising concerns regarding its ability to maintain profitability amid rising costs and competitive pressures.