Shopify Inc (SHOP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Shopify has demonstrated strong growth indicators, with Sidekick MAUs increasing significantly and showing high engagement among merchants, evidenced by 8 million conversations in October 2025. The company's Merchant Solutions revenue soared 38% year-over-year, reaching $2.145 billion, highlighting effective expansion in various verticals, including substantial gains in B2B and Offline GMV. Furthermore, Shopify's continued traction in international markets, particularly in Europe, where GMV surged 49% year-over-year, signifies a strong and expanding total addressable market, further solidifying the company's positive growth outlook.

The key points supporting a negative outlook on Shopify's stock include flat or declining headcount over the past two years, which may indicate challenges in growth and talent deployment within the organization. Additionally, the lower-than-expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, driven by net unrealized losses on equity investments, highlights significant financial vulnerabilities. Furthermore, concerns surrounding gross merchandise volume, which is increasingly tied to discretionary spending, raise questions about future revenue potential in a shifting consumer behavior landscape.